One Nation surges in Australian polls ahead of state elections
Pauline Hanson's far-right One Nation party is polling at levels not seen before in Victoria, challenging Labor and the Coalition just months before the November state election.
Pauline Hanson's One Nation party is emerging as a serious force in Australian state politics, posting record polling numbers in Victoria and preparing a challenge in Western Australia as both states head toward elections.
A Redbridge and Accent Research poll conducted in late June shows One Nation at 27% of the primary vote in Victoria, level with the Coalition at 26% and just one point ahead of Labor at 26%. The result represents a three-way contest for a state that has traditionally been dominated by the two major parties.
The poll suggests right-wing parties would win a majority in Victoria's upper house under current electoral rules.
The Victorian state election is scheduled for late November. According to the poll, when voters' preferences flow, Labor gains a slight advantage over One Nation (52–48), but the Coalition leads Labor (54–46). By three-party preferred counting — which asks undecided voters to choose between Labor, the Coalition, or One Nation — Labor leads with 39.9%, the Coalition has 30.1%, and One Nation 29.9%.
West Australian byelection signals broader momentum
One Nation's surge in Victoria comes as the party prepares to test its reach in a Western Australian byelection for the Labor seat of Secret Harbour. The byelection, triggered by the resignation of long-serving Labor minister Paul Papalia due to family illness, lies largely within the federal electorate of Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie, a vocal critic of the party.
Recent internal polling of the Secret Harbour seat suggests One Nation is running "neck-and-neck with Labor," according to reporting from the Australian Financial Review cited in the analysis. Labor insiders said the party and One Nation were both tracking in the mid-30s for primary support, while the Liberals polled in the high teens — a dramatic shift from the 2025 state election result, when the seat returned 46.5% for Labor, 25% for the Liberals, 8.8% for the Greens, and only 8.4% for One Nation.
One Nation confirmed it had been preparing for the byelection and is drawing from a shortlist of candidates.
Labor's weakness and right-wing consolidation
Victoria's Labor Premier Jacinta Allan faces significant headwinds, with a net favourability rating of -42 in the poll (59% unfavourable, 17% favourable). Historical analysis suggests that all ten premiers who have recorded net approval ratings of -31 or worse have subsequently lost the next election, resigned, or been ousted by their party.
Liberal leader Jess Wilson, by contrast, recorded a +13 net favourability (31% favourable, 18% unfavourable), while Pauline Hanson's net rating in Victoria stood at -9 (46% unfavourable, 37% favourable).
If the poll results were replicated across Victoria's proportional upper house regions, right-wing parties — One Nation and the Coalition combined — would win a majority of the 40 upper house seats. The analysis indicates they would secure 23 of 40 seats, combining to hold over 50% of the vote in six of eight electoral regions.
Federal currents and internal Coalition tensions
One Nation's state-level momentum comes as the party faces competing fortunes in federal polling. While a federal Newspoll aggregate for April to June showed Labor slumping in Victoria and South Australia, a separate Morgan poll suggested One Nation's federal support was weakening, dropping nine points in primary vote to 22.5% compared with a poll two weeks prior.
Within the federal Coalition, divisions have emerged over how to respond to One Nation. Some Liberals favour electoral accommodation, but Hastie has taken a hardline stance. After telling the Coalition party room he would "rather get taken out in a box than bend the knee to One Nation," he warned supporters against preference deals with the party, calling such moves premature and a signal of weakness.
One Nation, for its part, has targeted Hastie partly over his testimony in a failed defamation case brought by Ben Roberts-Smith, a Victoria Cross recipient accused of five counts of murder-related war crimes from his time in Afghanistan. Hastie, who served in Afghanistan alongside Roberts-Smith, provided evidence against him in that case. One Nation has declared strong support for Roberts-Smith.
Hastie reported that One Nation has conducted "a relentless campaign of personal attacks" against him online, prompting upgrades to security at his home and electorate office.
Looking ahead
The Western Australian byelection and the Victorian state election in November will both serve as crucial tests of One Nation's capacity to translate polling gains into seats. The party has positioned itself as a challenger to traditional two-party dominance at a moment when public dissatisfaction with major-party leaders appears elevated.