Australians hit record pessimism on economy, trust in Trump craters to all-time low
A new Lowy Institute poll shows Australians more gloomy about the economy than ever recorded, with confidence in US President Trump at an all-time low despite continued support for the US alliance.
Australians have reached peak pessimism about their economy and are increasingly distrustful of US leadership, according to the Lowy Institute's 2026 poll released this week.
Nearly six in ten Australians (59%) now express pessimism about the country's economic performance — a 12-point jump from 2025 and the highest level ever recorded since the poll began in 2005. The figure surpasses even the gloom recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 global financial crisis.
The shift reflects a broader cooling in Australian public confidence across multiple fronts, from international relations to the government's foreign policy record.
Trust in Trump hits historic low
Confidence in US President Donald Trump has plunged to its lowest point in the poll's history. Just over one in five Australians (21%) believe Trump will do the right thing in world affairs, marking a significant erosion of faith in American leadership.
Trust in the United States to act responsibly stands at 31%, down five points from 2025 and also a record low. This represents a sharp reversal from 2022, when 65% of Australians had confidence in US behaviour — a 34-point collapse in three years.
Despite this loss of confidence in American leadership, support for the Australia-US alliance remains relatively robust, though it too is weakening. Almost three in four Australians (73%) say the alliance is very or fairly important to Australia's security, down seven points in a year.
"Support for Australia's alliance with the United States has held up, even though confidence in President Trump has cratered," said poll author Charlie Lyons-Jones.
China trust rising, but still low
In a striking inversion, Australians now view the relationship with China as more strategically important than the relationship with the US — 51% versus 45%, marking the first time a majority has taken this view.
Trust in China to act responsibly remains low at 28%, but it has risen eight points from 2025. The gap between Australian trust in US and Chinese responsibility has narrowed to just three points, down from a 53-point difference in 2022.
The shift reflects what the poll describes as extremely low levels of trust in both superpowers. Australians hold neither in high regard, but the trajectory favours Beijing, at least in relative terms.
Defence commitment endures
Despite geopolitical anxiety, Australian support for enhanced defence capabilities remains strong. Half of all Australians (50%) support increasing defence spending, and more than two in three (68%) back the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines through the AUKUS partnership.
A majority (over two-thirds) also support the basing of American military forces on Australian soil.
These figures suggest that, while Australians have soured on Trump personally and grown uneasy about the balance of great-power relationships, they have not abandoned the practical mechanisms of the US alliance.
Cultural diversity support collapses
The poll also found a dramatic shift in attitudes toward cultural diversity. When last surveyed in 2024, nine in ten Australians said they viewed cultural diversity as entirely or mostly positive. This year, that figure has fallen to 73% — a 17-point drop the Lowy Institute describes as "the largest movement on any societal question in the history" of the poll.
This decline, though steep, still leaves a substantial majority of Australians viewing diversity positively.
Government foreign policy rating sinks
Australian assessment of the Albanese government's foreign policy performance has deteriorated. Just over half of Australians (54%) now rate the government's foreign policy as quite or very poor, up 13 points since 2024.